IvyArcIvyArc
9

Chanceitlucky

7yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 81

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Racecourse Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 7-y-o. Showed up fairly well before absence seemed to tell on reappearance last month. Tighter in the betting with tongue strap refitted but went backwards from that effort at Ballinrobe 2 weeks on. Headgear now removed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 07/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f125y Gd 1587/07C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 09/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 2m3f Goo 1589/08C8C8 @ Navan 20/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 2m5f Yie 16620/09C8C8 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f Goo 16614/10C8BHA85 @ Navan 16/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 24 · OR 85 · 2m Hvy 153 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 85 par16/1185OR 85BHA82 @ Ballinrobe 10/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 82 · 2m6f113y Goo 152 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 82 par10/0882OR 82BHA82 @ Ballinrobe 24/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 82 · 2m6f61y Gd 151 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 82 par24/0882OR 82projClass-projected finish: 13th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24BallinrobeBHA8212th12th0
2026-08-10BallinrobeBHA825th5th0
2025-11-16NavanBHA856th6th0
2025-10-14Punchestown?4th4th0
2025-09-20Navan?13th13th0
2025-08-09Kilbeggan?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0714/1024/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1713% of fieldRange 2-17 · tight 30/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength28%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 17.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/07/202511th66/10%23%+0.23
09/08/20259th100/10%11%+0.11
20/09/202513th200/10%8%+0.08
14/10/20254th250/10%77%+0.77
16/11/20256th25/10%78%+0.78
10/08/20265th20/10%73%+0.73
24/08/202612th9/276%27%-0.50