19
Ersudaly
6yo Mare · 11-1 · OR 87
Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Racecourse Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m
#17
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA89 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | BHA94 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-15 | Fairyhouse | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Fairyhouse | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 170% of fieldRange 9-17 · tight 63/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 15/01/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 14/07/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |