11
Fervida
6yo Mare · 10-6 · OR 78
Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Racecourse Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m
#16
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Tramore | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA81 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA81 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | BHA84 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairyhouse | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-15 | Fairyhouse | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 8-12 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/12/2025 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |
| 15/01/2026 | 9th | 150/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |