4
Tango Theatre
11yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 93
Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Racecourse Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA94 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA92 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA94 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA95 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Sligo | BHA97 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Downpatrick | BHA88 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1775% of fieldRange 1-17 · tight 22/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/09/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 24/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 19/08/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |