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14

Tawny Lea

6yo Mare · 10-5 · OR 77

Fairyhouse · Fairyhouse Racecourse Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 3m

#16

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden. Didn't build on the promise of her Ballinrobe fifth (good) when well-held seventh of 19 at Galway (2¾m, soft). Possibly worth another chance back under less testing conditions, with step up to 3m likely to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Sligo 12/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f166y Goo 15112/05C8C8 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 2m3f200y Yie 16128/05C8BHA80 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 80 · 2m2f200y Gd 148 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 80 par24/0780OR 80BHA78 @ Ballinrobe 24/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 78 · 2m6f61y Gd 147 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 78 par24/0878OR 78BHA78 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 78 · 2m6f97y Yie 146 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 78 par7/0978OR 78projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07GalwayBHA787th7th0
2026-08-24BallinrobeBHA785th5th0
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA8011th11th0
2026-06-09Sligo?0
2026-05-28Limerick?8th8th0
2026-05-12Sligo?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0528/0524/0724/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/202612th125/10%21%+0.21
28/05/20268th200/10%50%+0.50
24/07/202611th66/10%33%+0.33
24/08/20265th50/10%73%+0.73
07/09/20267th14/126%67%+0.40