Interstate
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 67
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 22/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |