Bargain Purchase
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 58
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |