4
Solo Flight
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 46
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength72%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 01/03/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |