2
Fines Creek
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 41
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/01/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/02/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 08/03/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 11/05/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 30/06/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 28/07/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |