3
Mr Baldy
3yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 63
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-12-31 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 65/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 12/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 31/12/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |