5
Serra
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 82
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
64%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength95%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |