IvyArcIvyArc
1

Shakeitforthebird

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 62

Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 04/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 79 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark04/06/2025 · OR 79 par4/06C6OR 79C6 @ Saratoga 16/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 78 · 1m1f Fas 118 · below its mark16/07/2025 · OR 78 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 11/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 1m110y 120 · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 69 par11/08C6OR 69C6 @ Finger Lakes 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 65 · 4f110y 124 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 65 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 27/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 58 · 1m 124 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 58 par27/05C6OR 58C6 @ Finger Lakes 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 55 · 1m 124 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 55 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 1m 124 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 57 par30/06C6OR 57C6 @ Finger Lakes 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 62 · 1m110y 124 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 62 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 60 · 1m70y Fas 124 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 60 par8/09C6OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-07-27Finger Lakes?6th6th0
2026-06-30Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0
2026-06-08Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-05-27Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-04-27Finger Lakes?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0627/0430/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20259th10/147%27%-0.20
16/07/20256th9/153%0%-0.53
11/08/20252nd11/486%86%+0.00
27/04/20264th1/195%50%-0.45
27/05/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08
08/06/20263rd8/158%50%-0.08
30/06/20262nd6/168%80%+0.12
27/07/20266th7/282%17%-0.65
08/09/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49