2
Celeslia
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 61
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |