1
Carol Said No
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 68
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |