Celestial Express

5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 85

Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-04	Saratoga	?	10th	8th	+2	2.4
2026-08-02	Saratoga	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-06-28	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-14	Monmouth Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-04-26	Gulfstream	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-04-16	Gulfstream	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 68/100

▼ SLIPPING

Trend▼

Strength56%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/02/2026	5th	40/1	0%	43%	+0.43
05/03/2026	7th	50/1	0%	33%	+0.33
29/03/2026	4th	40/1	0%	57%	+0.57
16/04/2026	7th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
26/04/2026	6th	40/1	0%	29%	+0.29
14/06/2026	4th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03
28/06/2026	5th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
02/08/2026	9th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
04/09/2026	10th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00