Hidden Vase
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2024-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2024-04-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-02-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2024-01-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -24.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 09/02/2024 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 07/04/2024 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/07/2024 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 9% | -0.62 |
| 16/08/2024 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |