7
Lincolnville Beach
7yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/10/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |