4
Rachel's Rock
7yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 83
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 02/05/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 14% | -0.74 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 60% | -0.35 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |