Riyah Al Nil
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 58
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/02/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 12/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |