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Spirit Forward

3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 50

Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f110y 11919/09C9C9 @ Saratoga 23/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 36 · 5f110y Fm 122 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 36 par23/07C9OR 36C9 @ Saratoga 20/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 49 · 1m 121 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 49 par20/08C9OR 49C6 @ Finger Lakes 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 44 · 5f110y 121 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 44 par21/09C6OR 44projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-08-20Saratoga?3rd6th−3
2026-07-23Saratoga?8th11th−3
2025-09-19Belmont At The Big A?4th7th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0923/0720/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 26/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20254th25/10%50%+0.50
23/07/20268th33/10%30%+0.30
20/08/20263rd13/891%0%-0.91
21/09/20263rd33/10%78%+0.78