2
Coach Caley
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 69
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 9th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/10/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 29/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |