4
Crumlin Trouble
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 79
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 22/09/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |