6
Kid Gizmo
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 5-6 · tight 83/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 14/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 14/09/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |