4
Super Serenade
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 60
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
77%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |