4
Japonka
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 55
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 13% | -0.53 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 14/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |