3
La Ronde
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 57
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 20/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 22/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |