IvyArcIvyArc
5

Noyzee Girl

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 59

Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Woodbine 18/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 6f 124 · below its mark18/07/2025 · OR 65 par18/07C9OR 65C9 @ Woodbine 11/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 69 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 69 parC9 @ Woodbine 30/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 66 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 66 par30/10C9OR 66C9 @ Woodbine 06/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 65 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 65 parC9 @ Woodbine 12/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 69 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 69 par12/12C9OR 69C6 @ Fort Erie 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 58 · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 58 parC6 @ Fort Erie 10/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 60 par10/08C6OR 60C6 @ Fort Erie 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 59 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 59 parC9 @ Fort Erie 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 61 par15/09C9OR 61projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Fort Erie?1st2nd−1
2026-08-30Fort Erie?2nd0th+2
2026-08-10Fort Erie?2nd0th+2
2026-07-07Fort Erie?3rd1st+2
2025-12-12Woodbine?6th7th−1
2025-11-06Woodbine?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/076/1110/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 68/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20253rd7/163%71%+0.08
11/09/20254th9/153%63%+0.10
30/10/20255th12/137%50%+0.13
06/11/20257th20/10%33%+0.33
12/12/20256th16/116%50%+0.34
07/07/20263rd9/488%50%-0.38
10/08/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
30/08/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
15/09/20261st1/699%100%+0.01