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3

Candid Candace

5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 73

Fort Erie · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 25/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 83 par25/10C7OR 83C8 @ Woodbine 07/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 1m110y 123 · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 81 parC7 @ Woodbine 02/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 83 par2/05C7OR 83C7 @ Woodbine 15/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f 122 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 77 parC8 @ Fort Erie 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 65 · 1m70y 124 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 65 par21/06C8OR 65C7 @ Fort Erie 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 72 · 1m Slo 120 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Fort Erie 24/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 70 · 1m110y Slo 124 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 70 par24/08C8OR 70C5 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 73 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Fort Erie 29/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 76 · 7f Fm 120 · below its mark29/09/2026 · OR 76 par29/09C8OR 76projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29Fort Erie?3rd6th−3
2026-09-07Fort Erie?6th5th+1
2026-08-24Fort Erie?2nd5th−3
2026-08-03Fort Erie?1st3rd−2
2026-06-21Fort Erie?2nd5th−3
2026-05-15Woodbine?6th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1015/0524/0829/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength92%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
07/11/20252nd4/696%83%-0.13
02/05/20266th4/179%17%-0.62
15/05/20266th25/10%17%+0.17
21/06/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
03/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
24/08/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
07/09/20266th14/126%50%+0.24
29/09/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02