1
Hot Omelet
7yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 70
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |