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4

Momaxie

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 82

Fort Erie · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

62%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f 12219/12C9C6 @ Laurel Park 10/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 1m Slo 121 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 78 parC5 @ Laurel Park 21/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 85 · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 85 par21/02C5OR 85C6 @ Laurel Park 25/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 78 parC6 @ Laurel Park 10/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 80 par10/05C6OR 80C5 @ Fort Erie 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 74 · 6f 120 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 74 parC5 @ Fort Erie 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 6f110y Slo 120 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 78 par21/07C5OR 78C5 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 79 par7/09C5OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Fort Erie?1st0th+1
2026-07-21Fort Erie?1st1st0
2026-06-21Fort Erie?1st1st0
2026-05-10Laurel Park?3rd4th−1
2026-04-25Laurel Park?5th6th−1
2026-02-21Laurel Park?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1225/0421/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 69/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength79%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
10/01/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
21/02/20263rd11/271%33%-0.38
25/04/20265th13/266%20%-0.46
10/05/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
21/06/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
21/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
07/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11