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5

Spirit Bear

5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 85

Fort Erie · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength7%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 29/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f Fas 12229/11C7C6 @ Woodbine 13/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 95 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 95 parC8 @ Woodbine 15/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 87 · 6f 123 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 87 par15/05C8OR 87C8 @ Woodbine 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 87 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 87 parC8 @ Woodbine 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 85 par10/07C8OR 85C5 @ Fort Erie 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 6f110y Slo 122 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 86 parC6 @ Fort Erie 10/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 82 par10/08C6OR 82C5 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 84 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 84 parC8 @ Woodbine 25/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark25/09/2026 · OR 82 par25/09C8OR 82projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Woodbine?3rd6th−3
2026-09-07Fort Erie?2nd1st+1
2026-08-10Fort Erie?1st2nd−1
2026-07-21Fort Erie?2nd2nd0
2026-07-10Woodbine?3rd6th−3
2026-06-06Woodbine?5th8th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/116/0610/0825/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength69%

Delivery trend -0.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/11/20253rd7/163%67%+0.04
13/12/20255th12/137%56%+0.19
15/05/20263rd13/891%60%-0.31
06/06/20265th9/488%33%-0.55
10/07/20263rd10/1195%60%-0.35
21/07/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
10/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
07/09/20262nd7/491%83%-0.07
25/09/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12