5
Jagr Dude
4yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 61
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 32/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |