3
Bella Classica
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 72
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Allowance · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 17% | -0.74 |