2
Blue's Mommy
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 52
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Allowance · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 55/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |