4
Brengungirl
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 72
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Allowance · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |