1
Justify Perfection
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 82
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Allowance · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
95%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-07-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 23/03/2024 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 20/04/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 22/07/2025 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |