7
Noble Bodan
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 57
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Allowance · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +10.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 21/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/09/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |