5
Silent Patsy
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 67
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Allowance · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 31/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |