IvyArcIvyArc
5

Honey's On Fire

4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 54

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/06/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS4/06C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 83 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 83 par3/09C6OR 83C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 31 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 31 par23/09C6OR 31C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 30 · 6f 122 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 30 par15/10C9OR 30C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 35 · 5f110y Fas 121 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 35 par6/06C9OR 35C8 @ Ellis Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 42 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 42 par19/07C8OR 42C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 60 · 6f 119 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 60 par8/09C8OR 60projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0
2026-07-19Ellis Park?2nd2nd0
2026-06-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2025-10-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th9th−1
2025-09-23Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th3rd+2
2025-09-03Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0615/108/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength97%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/202512th50/10%0%0.00
03/09/20254th20/10%50%+0.50
23/09/20255th20/10%20%+0.20
15/10/20258th40/10%13%+0.13
06/06/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
19/07/20262nd25/10%86%+0.86
08/09/20268th33/10%0%0.00