3
Boss Justice
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 3 · OR 58
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 11/08/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |