5
El Payasito
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 5 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 62/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |