2
Imminent Forecast
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 14/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |