1
Rioja Alta
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 1 · OR 76
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 70/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |