6
Unbridled Valor
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 6 · OR 63
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 30/06/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |