IvyArcIvyArc
6

Downtownritabrown

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 68

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS28/10C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 53 · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 53 par16/07C6OR 53projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th2nd+2
2025-10-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1016/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +91.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/10/20258th12/137%13%-0.24
16/07/20264th25/10%67%+0.67