2
Sunny's Flame
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength59%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 77/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |