Toodelirious

4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 74

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Kentucky Downs	?	12th	9th	+3	1.0
2026-06-21	Churchill Downs	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2024-09-22	Meadowlands	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 70/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength80%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/09/2024	1st	6/4	92%	100%	+0.08
21/06/2026	9th	25/1	0%	11%	+0.11
07/09/2026	12th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00