4
Bit Tipsy
2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 78
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 22/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -14.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 18/07/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |