11
Dreaming Of Joy
3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 11 · OR 91
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 1-15 · tight 22/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 12/04/2026 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 9% | -0.57 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 43% | -0.53 |