15
Havana Rum
3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 15 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 7-15 · tight 53/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -17.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |